Answer Key: Structuring the Markov Model Group Exercise
Answer: Natural History
m_R0 =
| Asymptomatic |
-(r_AP/10+r_Db) |
r_AP/10 |
0 |
r_Db |
| Progressive Disease |
0 |
-(HR_PDd * r_Db + r_Db) |
HR_PDd * r_Db |
r_Db |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Natural History
m_P0 = exp(m_R0) =
| Asymptomatic |
1-p_AP-p_ADb |
p_AP |
0 |
p_ADb |
| Progressive Disease |
0 |
1-p_PDd-p_PDb |
p_PDd |
p_PDb |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Strategy A
Basis is m_P0
m_P_A =
| Asymptomatic |
1-RR_AP * p_AP-p_ADb |
RR_AP p_AP |
0 |
p_ADb |
| Progressive Disease |
0 |
1-p_PDd-p_PDb |
p_PDd |
p_PDb |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Strategy B
Basis is m_P0
m_P_B =
| Asymptomatic |
1-p_AP-p_ADb |
p_AP |
0 |
p_ADb |
| Progressive Disease |
0 |
1-((OR_PDd / (1 - p0_OR_PDd + (p0_OR_PDd * OR_PDd ))) * p_PDd)-p_PDb |
(OR_PDd / (1 - p0_OR_PDd + (p0_OR_PDd * OR_PDd ))) * p_PDd |
p_PDb |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Strategy B
Note that because p0_OR_PDd is fairly low (i.e., 0.03), you could just use the odds ratio as a relative risk.
Basis is m_P0
m_P_B =
| Asymptomatic |
1-p_AP-p_ADb |
p_AP |
0 |
p_ADb |
| Progressive Disease |
0 |
1- OR_PDd * p_PDd)-p_PDb |
OR_PDd * p_PDd |
p_PDb |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Strategy C
Basis is m_R0
m_R_C =
| Asymptomatic |
-(r_AP/10+r_Db) |
r_AP/10 |
0 |
r_Db |
| Progressive Disease |
r_PA_trtC/10 |
-(r_PA_trtC/10 + HR_PDd * r_Db + r_Db) |
HR_PDd * r_Db |
r_Db |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer: Strategy C
m_P_C = exp(m_R_C) =
| Asymptomatic |
1-p_AP-p_ADb |
p_AP |
0 |
p_ADb |
| Progressive Disease |
p_PA |
1-p_PDd-p_PDb |
p_PDd |
p_PDb |
| Disease Mortality |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
0 |
| Background Mortality |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Rate adjusted for timestep |
| Hazard Ratio |
| Probability |
| Relative Risk |
| Odds Ratio |
| Constructed from other cells |
Answer Key: Structuring the Markov Model Group Exercise